The Tokyo Olympics dressage competition gets underway today (24 July), with the grand prix, which runs over two days. At these Olympics, the grand prix serves two separate purposes: it acts as a team qualifier for the grand prix special on Tuesday (27 July), with the top eight teams going on to compete for the team medals, and it also determines who will qualify for the Tokyo Olympics grand prix freestyle, which determines the individual medals on Wednesday (28 July).
Only 18 combinations will progress through from the grand prix to the freestyle. The 60 starters (15 teams of three plus 15 individuals) will ride in six groups of 10, with riders distributed across these groups according to world ranking. The 18 that will progress to the freestyle comprise the top two pairs in each of the six groups, plus the six next best across all the groups.
As we have discussed in our Olympics previews, this Games is especially unpredictable for many reasons. But H&H dressage editor Polly Bryan has analysed the start list, and had a go at predicting which combinations will make up the 18 that will qualify for the Tokyo Olympics grand prix freestyle. Let’s see what she thinks…
Group One
Joao Victor Marcari Oliva (BRA) – Escorial
Nanna Skodberg Merrald (DEN) – Zack
Dong Seon Kim (KOR) – Belstaff
Kazuki Sado (JPN) – Ludwig Der Sonnenkoenig 2
Mary Hanna (AUS) – Calanta
Inna Logutenkova (UKR) – Fleraro
Yvonne Losos de Muniz (DOM) – Aquamarijn
Lottie Fry (GBR) – Everdale
Therese Nilshagen (SWE) – Dante Weltino
This is a strong group to kick off proceedings at the Tokyo Olympics dressage. The Swedish pair Therese Nilshagen and Dante Weltino are the best-ranked pair, in 18th, hence their position at the end of the group, but it is Britain’s Lottie Fry and Everdale, ranked 36th, whose grand prix scores have been consistently higher over the past couple of seasons. I would expect Lottie to lead this group and secure her spot in the freestyle. If Therese and Dante Weltino can find their best form, I would expect them to go through too, but it could be a close call between them and the Danish pair Nanna Skodberg Merrald, who have posted consistent mid-70s grand prix scores in the short time they’ve been together. Don’t rule out Yvonne Losos de Muniz, and Mary Hanna, either.
Britain’s Lottie Fry with Everdale
Group Two
Edward Gal (NED) – Total US
Beatriz Ferrer-Salat (ESP) – Elegance
Dina Ellermann (EST) – Donna Anna
Francesco Zaza (ITA) – Wispering Romance
Maria Caetano (POR) – Fenix De Tineo
Chris von Martels (CAN) – Eclips
Inessa Merkulova (ROC) – Mister X
Antonia Ramel (SWE) – Brother De Jeu
Cathrine Dufour (DEN) – Bohemian
This is a fascinating group. In theory, Cathrine Dufour should walk it – she and Bohemian achieved plus-83% several times in 2020, and 80% on their last outing, and are ranked number six in the world. But Edward Gal’s Total US, while too new to this level to have made much headway up the world rankings as of yet, has scored in the high 70s in each of their three international grands prix so far. I think Cathrine and Edward will book tickets to the freestyle, but Spain’s Beatriz Ferrer-Salat, Sweden’s Antonia Ramel and Austria’s Victoria Max-Theurer are likely to be in strong contention for one of the six “lucky loser” places.
Group Three
Jose Antonio Garcia Mena (ESP) – Sorento 15
Carl Hester (GBR) – En Vogue
Larissa Pauluis (BEL) – Flambeau
Aleksandra Maksakova (ROC) – Bojengels
Alexandre Ayache (FRA) – Zo What
Rodrigo Torres (POR) – Fogoso
Sabine Schut-Kery (USA) – Sanceo
Henri Ruoste (FIN) – Kontestro DB
Hans Peter Minderhoud (NED) – Dream Boy
Jessica von Bredow-Werndl (GER) – TSF Dalera
This is going to be a hugely exciting group to finish things up on the first day of grand prix, and Britain’s Carl Hester will face hot competition. Germany’s Jessica von Bredow-Werndl, ranked second in the world, is one of the favourites for individual gold and I would expect her to easily finish in the top two today, based on recent scores – her last three grands prix have all earned over 81%. If Carl and En Vogue can match their best international grand prix score – 77.5% in May – I think they will also go through. But the USA’s Sabine Schut-Kery, Finland’s Henri Ruoste and the Netherlands’ Hans-Peter Minderhoud all have the form to muscle their way into the top two. Whoever finishes third will likely end up as one of six extra qualifiers.
Germany’s Jessica von Bredow-Werndl with TSF Dalera
Group Four
Severo Jurado Lopez (ESP) – Fendi T
Christian Schumach (AUT) – TE Quiero SF
Caroline Chew (SGP) – Tribiani
Tatyana Kosterina (ROC) – Diavolessa
Heike Holstein (IRE) – Sambuca
Laurence Roos (BEL) – Fil Rouge
Lindsay Kellock (CAN) – Sebastien
Simone Pearce (AUS) – Destano
Carina Cassøe Kruth (DEN) – Heiline’s Danciera
Adrienne Lyle (USA) – Salvino
Based on their recent form, I expect this group to come down to a battle between the USA’s top ranked rider, Adrienne Lyle, and Denmark’s Carina Cassøe Kruth, both of whom have several very strong grand prix scores on their recent record. My money would go on Adrienne to edge it with Salvino – they are the only members of this group to have scored 80% at grand prix, and she achieved that as recently as April this year. Australia’s Simone Pearce and Destano could also be in the mix, but I think Ireland’s sole dressage representative Heike Holstein would have to better her best by a significant margin with the lovely home-bred mare Sambuca to move forward to the freestyle here.
Group Five
Marlies van Baalen (NED) – Go Legend
Shingo Hayashi (JPN) – Scolari 4
Martha Fernanda del Valle Quirarte (MEX) – Beduino Lam
Domien Michels (BEL) – Intermezzo Van Het Meerda
Kelly Layne (AUS) – Samhitas
Estelle Wettstein (SUI) – West Side Story OLD
Nicolas Ehlinger Wagner (LUX) – Quater Back Junior FRH
Morgan Barbançon (FRA) – Sir Donnerhall II OLD
Juliette Ramel (SWE) – Buriel KH
Dorothee Schneider (GER) – Showtime FRH
On paper, Germany’s Dorothee Schneider should walk this group with the lovely showtime FRH, with whom she could well win an individual medal. They haven’t competed very much since the 2019 Europeans, where they won two individual silver medals, but they produced an 81.52% grand prix on their last outing in June. Juliette Ramel and Buriel could well end up being Sweden’s leading combination after the withdrawal of Patrik Kittel, and I am confident that they will qualify for the Tokyo Olympics grand prix freestyle. But whether that is as one of the top two, or as a “lucky loser”, may well be up to France’s Morgan Barbançon, whose grand prix scores with Sir Donnerhall II are remarkably consistent, hovering very close to the 72% mark.
Group Six
Virginia Yarur (CHI) – Ronaldo
Yessin Rahmouni (MAR) – All At Once
Hiroyuki Kitahara (JPN) – Huracan
Maxime Collard (FRA) – Cupido PB
Charlotte Dujardin (GBR) – Gio
Florian Bacher (AUT) – Fidertraum
Brittany Fraser-Beaulieu (CAN) – All In
Joao Miguel Torrao (POR) – Equador
Steffen Peters (USA) – Suppenkasper
Isabell Werth (GER) – Bella Rose 2
And so to the final, and arguably most interesting group, of the six to close out the grand prix competition here at the Tokyo Olympics. I think that a couple of the six additional qualifying combinations will come from this group. World number one Isabell Werth will bring the action to a suitable climax, but all eyes will be on defending Olympic champion Charlotte Dujardin. She may only be ranked 109th with Gio, but this is reflective of their lack of international outings, not of their ability, and I would fully expect Charlotte to give Isabell a run for her money. My feeling is, though, that the sprightly little Gio will improve as the competition goes on, so while Charlotte will certainly not be sitting quietly in this test, I think we’ll see a higher score from them in the special. The USA’s Steffen Peters and Portugal’s main man Joao Torrao will have to improve on their best scores so far to make the top two, but a high-70s mark is within reach for them both, so I expect to see them in the top 18 as well.
Britain’s Charlotte Dujardin and Gio
So, who will qualify for the Tokyo Olympics grand prix freestyle?
After crunching the numbers for each of the six groups, here are the 18 combinations I would expect to make it through to the grand prix freestyle, and to compete for an individual Olympic medal:
Lottie Fry (GBR) – Everdale
Therese Nilshagen (SWE) – Dante Weltino
Nanna Skodberg Merrald (DEN) – Zack
Edward Gal (NED) – Total US
Antonia Ramel (SWE) – Brother De Jeu
Cathrine Dufour (DEN) – Bohemian
Carl Hester (GBR) – En Vogue
Henri Ruoste (FIN) – Kontestro DB
Hans Peter Minderhoud (NED) – Dream Boy
Jessica von Bredow-Werndl (GER) – TSF Dalera
Carina Cassøe Kruth (DEN) – Heiline’s Danciera
Adrienne Lyle (USA) – Salvino
Juliette Ramel (SWE) – Buriel KH
Dorothee Schneider (GER) – Showtime FRH
Charlotte Dujardin (GBR) – Gio
Joao Miguel Torrao (POR) – Equador
Steffen Peters (USA) – Suppenkasper
Isabell Werth (GER) – Bella Rose 2
You might also be interested in:
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Who is going to win the Olympic dressage medals in Tokyo?
‘Everything is on a bigger and grander scale’: Gareth Hughes’ Tokyo Olympics groom Steph Sharples on her first Games
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