Great Britain had been coming into the Paris Olympics as favourites to claim the gold Olympic dressage team medal for the first time since London 2012. However, that was before the withdrawal of Charlotte Dujardin.
Becky Moody (Jagerbomb) will replace her, and compete alongside two of the British team who won team gold at the European Championships last summer – Lottie Fry (Glamourdale) and Carl Hester (Fame).
The new British alternate Andrew Gould (Indigro) will be in Paris on standby ready to step in should any of those three be unable to compete.
These changes have meant that what was a three-way tussle at the top of the team podium is now likely to be a direct shootout between Denmark and Germany.
If the data and most recent results are to be believed, there will be less than a point separating them at the top.
Both teams are stronger now than they were at the Europeans. Germany’s Isabell Werth – the most successful dressage Olympian of all time – will now partner the 10-year-old Wendy, who replaces her older stablemate DSP Quantaz.
Meanwhile, Denmark has added heavyweights Cathrine Laudrup-Dufour and Freestyle to their team.
We currently have Denmark as the marginal favourite to win gold, but there are caveats to that.
Denmark’s Nanna Skodborg Merrald and Zepter haven’t ridden a grand prix special – which decides the team medals in Paris – in almost a year. Both Zepter and Freestyle have also had fitness issues in that time too.
If we take an average of each combination’s last three special scores, Britain’s predicted overall score has dropped from 238 to 234. This should be enough to keep them ahead of the Netherlands, who’d have to produce a series of personal bests to top 230.
However, it’s also important to remember that there will be no drop scores and any eliminations will be disastrous for a team’s medal prospects – so although the British team will be underdogs to finish higher than third, don’t rule them out.
With that in mind, it’s set to be a compelling watch, where the stakes are high and medals could be decided by the finest possible margins – every halt, every change and every transition will matter.
H&H’s dressage editor’s Olympic dressage team medal podium
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