British racing is partnering with the Royal Veterinary College (RVC) to use maths alongside expert knowledge to help make the sport safer.
The racing risk models (RRM) project uses advanced statistical techniques to better understand risk factors that lead to long-term injuries (defined as affecting horses for longer than three months), falls and fatalities.
Academic researchers from the RVC’s epidemiological team are analysing data collected from race starts in Britain, including more than 400,000 jump race records going back 14 years.
This data includes detailed information about horses, racing history, trainers, jockeys and racecourses, plus any adverse outcomes during a race. The project has also been expanded to include Flat racing.
Potential risk factors identified by the model span five general categories – horse, race, course, trainer and jockey.
Researchers use multivariable modelling to identify areas of increased risk and the strength of associations. This then allows predictive models to potentially identify how injury and fatality rates might be affected by any individual factors.
James Given, director of equine regulation, safety and welfare at the British Horseracing Authority and member of the Horse Welfare Board, spoke about the areas currently being analysed – and what they would like to look at in future.
Factors such as age, rating, experience, going, distance, type of course (sharp tracks or galloping tracks, for example), are already being considered. But this project has scope to look into further details of horses’ lives in future – including training methods, medication and injury history – and Mr Given explained the potential benefits that could have for all involved in the sport.
“One of the key things the risk model has thrown up is that about 50% of the risk that faces a horse when he comes jump racing is the ‘horse factor’,” he said.
“These are sort of things such as training methods, medication histories, injury histories that we’re not familiar with, which are all considered to be a significant part of the risk that the horse is dealing with on each day.
“And this is steering us to be looking at trying to find ways of enlisting this information from the training community, so that we can share best practice back, but also try and identify if there are things that are putting the horses more at risk, and share that with the trainers.”
British racing’s Equine Safety Group assesses the data produced by the risk models and then makes recommendations to the sport.
One example of ongoing research informed by the RRM, includes looking at possible enhanced veterinary protocols around horses returning to racing after long-term injuries that have caused lengthy spells away from the track.
Professor Kristien Verheyen, principal investigator on the RVC team, said that the research will “greatly help the industry in making scientifically backed decisions that will benefit the welfare of the sport’s equine participants, which must be the number one priority of all involved in racing.”
World Horse Welfare chief executive Roly Owers added: “Evidence-based decisions are vital to ensure the right changes are made to improve welfare and safety in horse sport, so we welcome the long-term investment in the work on the RRM and the impact it will have in protecting horses and jockeys.
“No activity with horses can ever be risk-free but racing poses specific risks, and so it is right that British racing is using its own data to identify and reduce avoidable risks.”
The project is jointly led by the BHA and the sport’s independently-chaired Horse Welfare Board, with funding from the Racing Foundation.
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